Note the 'deer in headlights' look of the idiot anchor people, after some of the comments Simmons makes...
Get used to high oil, etc.
Showing posts with label energy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label energy. Show all posts
14 July 2008
23 April 2008
Gas price
I know it's pretty high historically speaking, and everyone (radio, TV, sidewalk, etc) is talking about it, but I've been keeping track since sept. 2005, and here's the history at least here in Oregon, at least what we paid. I also have fuel mileage numbers, but that's another post.
The moving average is definitely on the up and up, but is 2.90 really that much different than 3.50? It might force a small shift to something other than business as usual (I use that term from an economists point of view), but if the economy goes south (like it is), the demand for gas will go down (and it actually has since last year), causing the price to go back down, and then we'll be back to where we started. The one factor that might cause problems with that theory is the simple fact that we can't pump oil any faster than we are right now. We'll need to have a shift in the model of our economy that needs infinite growth and is dependent on cheap oil (or should I say energy).
As for school, well, it's school, and I don't know what other engineering programs are like, but I may have picked the hardest one. Last year I was preparing for the PPP, and this year I'm doing lab reports in IEEE format. What would I rather be doing? hmm.
Shout out to my buddy Sean, who ran Boston Marathon! He was bummed that he didn't make his goal time, but he still kicked ass and beat my PR marathon time by 3 minutes! Good Job, and I wish I'd have been there!
The moving average is definitely on the up and up, but is 2.90 really that much different than 3.50? It might force a small shift to something other than business as usual (I use that term from an economists point of view), but if the economy goes south (like it is), the demand for gas will go down (and it actually has since last year), causing the price to go back down, and then we'll be back to where we started. The one factor that might cause problems with that theory is the simple fact that we can't pump oil any faster than we are right now. We'll need to have a shift in the model of our economy that needs infinite growth and is dependent on cheap oil (or should I say energy).
As for school, well, it's school, and I don't know what other engineering programs are like, but I may have picked the hardest one. Last year I was preparing for the PPP, and this year I'm doing lab reports in IEEE format. What would I rather be doing? hmm.
Shout out to my buddy Sean, who ran Boston Marathon! He was bummed that he didn't make his goal time, but he still kicked ass and beat my PR marathon time by 3 minutes! Good Job, and I wish I'd have been there!
17 August 2007
Crude, trips, planes and economics.
Well, here we are in portland, as a strong hurricane starts to ramp it up toward the gulf of mexico. So, I'm not a professional stock or commodities trader, but if I was, I would have loaded up on crude oil futures today. 
But the fact is, I really don't even know how it works to buy Sept07 crude, but what I do know is, if Dean stays strong, and rolls into the Gulf as a categorized hurricane, it will threaten some oil refineries, and well, the price of oil will hit about $100+ a barrel. Well see what happens there. The chart here is the graph for today and oil traded at about 71.50 a barrel.
We're going to iceland next week for a bike tour. It should be totally major and hopefully we don't bring too much stuff that we don't need, since it will just add extra weight. It's a bit stressful trying to plan such a trip, without even having been on a multi day bike tour in america, let alone a foreign country. Luckily we're going with some experienced professionals.
So next Wednesday we'll be up and on our way to MN where we will catch a plane to iceland the next day. We don't make airline trips too often and now I have to wonder if this might be the last trip we take on an airplane. Not by choice mind you, but I strongly believe that the era of low cost air travel is going to be gone at some point in the not so near future. The cost of fuel will be too much to keep it going (because it's not going to get really cheap again like it was before about 2005.) (but maybe I read too many blogs like this and this).
I don't really consider myself one of those coo coo for coco puffs retards that goes around warning of economic collapse, and stock up on rice and water. But (IMHO) we have some major issues with our economy. It lives on growth. It needs growth. We proved it this week when the stock market was going insane, on credit woes and slow housing stats. Our economic engine requires factories to build more cars, construction workers to build more houses, and which in turn requires OPEC and other oil producing nations to drill more oil (because that's what we need for growth). So with all those new houses, and new cars, we can then use more energy that creates more pollution.
OK, so you say, "the new houses are energy star efficient" and "the cars now get better MPG" but i say that's fine, but what about the 500 houses in my neighborhood that are 50-100 years old and they are all crappy energy wasting shacks, even though most of them cost over 400k. And honestly, are we just going to line up all the SUVs that were sold in the late 90s thru now, to line up at the junk yard? NO, they are going to be driving for at least 10-15 more years. Peak Oil has already happened:
This was taken from here in the February 2007 issue. Note that proven oil reserve discoveries hit a 'peak' in the late 1960s, and have fallen ever since, and is expected to keep falling, as shown. At some point, production will be forced to fall (because there's only so much discovered oil), and when that happens, there will be a supply/demand issue. When you look at that graph, it's hard to imagine we can keep growing production.
I guess what I'm saying is, I've come to the conclusion that we're all screwed, because I don't think there is enough oil left to keep fueling the economic growth long enough for us to figure out another way to grow our economy without it. See, lots of us have retirement money in the stock market and if that bombs then what happens? I know I had history classes and I think that happened sometime around 1930 something. And that's not even taking into account the possible global climate changes that may or may not happen (like what? oh, maybe hurricane Dean).
Your president is not going to fix it, and if you think you're going to get a new president that will fix something, think about this:
1988 - Bush 1
1992 - Clinton 1
1996 - Clinton 1
2000 - Bush 2
2004 - Bush 2
2008 - ???? Clinton 2????
What the hell is this? Our government is really a one party system.
See you after we get back from Iceland.
But the fact is, I really don't even know how it works to buy Sept07 crude, but what I do know is, if Dean stays strong, and rolls into the Gulf as a categorized hurricane, it will threaten some oil refineries, and well, the price of oil will hit about $100+ a barrel. Well see what happens there. The chart here is the graph for today and oil traded at about 71.50 a barrel.We're going to iceland next week for a bike tour. It should be totally major and hopefully we don't bring too much stuff that we don't need, since it will just add extra weight. It's a bit stressful trying to plan such a trip, without even having been on a multi day bike tour in america, let alone a foreign country. Luckily we're going with some experienced professionals.
So next Wednesday we'll be up and on our way to MN where we will catch a plane to iceland the next day. We don't make airline trips too often and now I have to wonder if this might be the last trip we take on an airplane. Not by choice mind you, but I strongly believe that the era of low cost air travel is going to be gone at some point in the not so near future. The cost of fuel will be too much to keep it going (because it's not going to get really cheap again like it was before about 2005.) (but maybe I read too many blogs like this and this).
I don't really consider myself one of those coo coo for coco puffs retards that goes around warning of economic collapse, and stock up on rice and water. But (IMHO) we have some major issues with our economy. It lives on growth. It needs growth. We proved it this week when the stock market was going insane, on credit woes and slow housing stats. Our economic engine requires factories to build more cars, construction workers to build more houses, and which in turn requires OPEC and other oil producing nations to drill more oil (because that's what we need for growth). So with all those new houses, and new cars, we can then use more energy that creates more pollution.
OK, so you say, "the new houses are energy star efficient" and "the cars now get better MPG" but i say that's fine, but what about the 500 houses in my neighborhood that are 50-100 years old and they are all crappy energy wasting shacks, even though most of them cost over 400k. And honestly, are we just going to line up all the SUVs that were sold in the late 90s thru now, to line up at the junk yard? NO, they are going to be driving for at least 10-15 more years. Peak Oil has already happened:
This was taken from here in the February 2007 issue. Note that proven oil reserve discoveries hit a 'peak' in the late 1960s, and have fallen ever since, and is expected to keep falling, as shown. At some point, production will be forced to fall (because there's only so much discovered oil), and when that happens, there will be a supply/demand issue. When you look at that graph, it's hard to imagine we can keep growing production.I guess what I'm saying is, I've come to the conclusion that we're all screwed, because I don't think there is enough oil left to keep fueling the economic growth long enough for us to figure out another way to grow our economy without it. See, lots of us have retirement money in the stock market and if that bombs then what happens? I know I had history classes and I think that happened sometime around 1930 something. And that's not even taking into account the possible global climate changes that may or may not happen (like what? oh, maybe hurricane Dean).
Your president is not going to fix it, and if you think you're going to get a new president that will fix something, think about this:
1988 - Bush 1
1992 - Clinton 1
1996 - Clinton 1
2000 - Bush 2
2004 - Bush 2
2008 - ???? Clinton 2????
What the hell is this? Our government is really a one party system.
See you after we get back from Iceland.
02 August 2006
Peak Oil
Here we are back in Bend after a great weekend in Portland. After weeks of 90 degree heat, we woke up on Monday morning to 37F degrees!! Wow was that a shock. A little too soon for a morning like that (can you say fall is on the way?), but we'll take it.
I've been reading some books about engergy. Peak Oil: What is it? Well, it's the theory that there is a finite supply of oil in the world that we're using slowly (or quickly depending on how you look at it) each day. So the rate at which new oil fields are discovered has already fallen off, as the big fields are pretty much known. We're still able to kick out more barrels today, than we did yesterday, but peak oil says that that will someday change, and we'll no longer produce enough oil to meet the demands of the world. (We're currently using between 80 and 90 MILLION barrels oil per DAY in the world.) It will probably be more like a plateau before the number we can produce starts going down.
Some say this might be a sort of armegeddon, with mass chaos and a big world war for the remaining oil. And this might be happening in the middle east right now (thanks GW). The more I read about it, the more I have hope that the law's of economics come into play and we become more energy efficient so we actually need less oil. It is already happening with the big 3 US automakers going in the tank (ford, gm and chrysler). They simply can't compete w/ Toyota an Honda and the efficient cars they are selling now.
So the point here is, change your light bulbs to compact florescents, use less electricity and natural gas and when it's time to get a new car, go for gas mileage.
Go out and see Al Gore's new movie and just wonder how different the world would be if we'd have had about 200 more votes for him in the 2000 election. I wasn't a big Gore fan back then, but hopefully he get's another chance to run in 08.
OK back to Yard work and blood donations.
out.
I've been reading some books about engergy. Peak Oil: What is it? Well, it's the theory that there is a finite supply of oil in the world that we're using slowly (or quickly depending on how you look at it) each day. So the rate at which new oil fields are discovered has already fallen off, as the big fields are pretty much known. We're still able to kick out more barrels today, than we did yesterday, but peak oil says that that will someday change, and we'll no longer produce enough oil to meet the demands of the world. (We're currently using between 80 and 90 MILLION barrels oil per DAY in the world.) It will probably be more like a plateau before the number we can produce starts going down.
Some say this might be a sort of armegeddon, with mass chaos and a big world war for the remaining oil. And this might be happening in the middle east right now (thanks GW). The more I read about it, the more I have hope that the law's of economics come into play and we become more energy efficient so we actually need less oil. It is already happening with the big 3 US automakers going in the tank (ford, gm and chrysler). They simply can't compete w/ Toyota an Honda and the efficient cars they are selling now.
So the point here is, change your light bulbs to compact florescents, use less electricity and natural gas and when it's time to get a new car, go for gas mileage.
Go out and see Al Gore's new movie and just wonder how different the world would be if we'd have had about 200 more votes for him in the 2000 election. I wasn't a big Gore fan back then, but hopefully he get's another chance to run in 08.
OK back to Yard work and blood donations.
out.
27 June 2006
Natural Gas (and oh yea, it's hot out)
This is part 1 of 3 for the energy usage for us, here I'm analyzing the usage of Natural Gas, up next is electricity and then water, maybe Gasoline too, but I've only been keeping track of that since October of 2005.
So regarding the natural gas, I don't have alot to compare the data to, to see if we are efficient, compared to the average American, but I think we do OK anyway, especially since our house was not really built with energy efficiency in mind. I began keeping track of this when we moved into our house in Nov. 2004.
For the first 6 months of 2006, the Ness casa used 284 therms of natural gas. In the same period last year we used 292, so we used 8 less therms of natural gas. NG is used to heat our house, water and we have a natural gas stove for cooking. Unfortunatly we don't keep temperature statistics but here's a breakdown of gas used per day, grouped by month.
So in every month except one, we used less gas. In March of this year, it was MUCH colder this year than last year which explains the discrepancy there. It would be interesting to compare the average temp in each month. Maybe I can find that online somewhere.
Cost? Well the average cost (per month) of our first 6 months in 2005 was $51.43, and in 2006 the average cost was $55.13. The cost per therm of our natural gas only went up about 10.2% (according to my math anyway) . Not bad considering the big scare about high NG prices after the hurricanes last fall.
Ahh- ok, this is my blog so I can blog whatever I want, so if you are bored to death by my energy usage statistics, then wait until the next blog entry where I will return to blogging about who will win the Tour de France, or my blood letting experiences, or something cool like that. Did I mention that it's about 100 degrees here in Bend right now? Yea it's HOT. So this week would mark the official beginning of Summer in central oregon. Needless to say we're not using much natural gas nowadays.
later
So regarding the natural gas, I don't have alot to compare the data to, to see if we are efficient, compared to the average American, but I think we do OK anyway, especially since our house was not really built with energy efficiency in mind. I began keeping track of this when we moved into our house in Nov. 2004.
For the first 6 months of 2006, the Ness casa used 284 therms of natural gas. In the same period last year we used 292, so we used 8 less therms of natural gas. NG is used to heat our house, water and we have a natural gas stove for cooking. Unfortunatly we don't keep temperature statistics but here's a breakdown of gas used per day, grouped by month.
So in every month except one, we used less gas. In March of this year, it was MUCH colder this year than last year which explains the discrepancy there. It would be interesting to compare the average temp in each month. Maybe I can find that online somewhere.Cost? Well the average cost (per month) of our first 6 months in 2005 was $51.43, and in 2006 the average cost was $55.13. The cost per therm of our natural gas only went up about 10.2% (according to my math anyway) . Not bad considering the big scare about high NG prices after the hurricanes last fall.
Ahh- ok, this is my blog so I can blog whatever I want, so if you are bored to death by my energy usage statistics, then wait until the next blog entry where I will return to blogging about who will win the Tour de France, or my blood letting experiences, or something cool like that. Did I mention that it's about 100 degrees here in Bend right now? Yea it's HOT. So this week would mark the official beginning of Summer in central oregon. Needless to say we're not using much natural gas nowadays.
later
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